It's Beth Potter versus Cassandre Beaugrand, and Leeds versus Loughborough, as the two premier women of this season's World Triathlon Championship Series go head-to-head in Spain to be crowned world champion this coming Sunday.
Whoever finishes the higher of 31-year-old Potter and France's East Midlands-based Beaugrand in Pontevedra looks destined to be crowned world champion for the first time.
Such has been the pair's dominance this season, that for their closest challenge, Beaugrand's compatriot Emma Lombardi, to win the overall series, both women would have to finish outside of the top five – and Lombardi would have to win a first-ever WTCS race.
While Potter (3,309pts) has three victories in Abu Dhabi, Montreal and the Olympic test event in Paris, and Beaugrand (3,341pts) has two wins, from Hamburg and Sunderland, the French woman leads the series by 32pts due to her four counting results coming in higher-weighted formats.
But in effect, it should matter little who wears the No. 1 on Sunday because whoever finishes ahead is guaranteed to be world champion provided they place in the top five – which both women have only failed to do once this season.
For Potter it would continue a fine tradition of British women winning short-course world titles dating back to Helen Jenkins (2008 & 2011), Non Stanford (2013), Vicky Holland (2018) and Georgia Taylor-Brown (2020).
With Taylor-Brown rehabbing a calf tear, Holland not yet returned since giving birth to her first child (although she is on the start-list for a World Cup in Morocco in a fortnight), Stanford retiring at the end of 2022, and Jenkins now on commentary, the stage is set for Potter, who also knows a podium not only give her the chance of winning the world title, but confirm her early qualification for the Paris Olympic alongside Alex Yee.
Who can stop Potter or Beaugrand winning the world title?
While the showdown in north-west Spain looks to be between arguably the two fastest runners in the sport, there are a handful of women waiting in the wings to cause an upset.
Lombardi, just 22, is best positioned with 2,946pts. The Frenchwoman is having the best season of her blossoming career and hasn't finished outside the top 10 in any of her WTCS races.
Second in both Cagliari behind Taylor-Brown and Sunderland behind Beaugrand, a win will secure an overall podium position for the 2021 U23 world champion.
USA's Taylor Spivey (2,836pts) currently sits fourth in the standings and is due a WTCS win after six podiums since 2017. While there is a question mark of her fitness after pulling out of the recent Super League Triathlon race in Toulouse, victory in Pontevedra would see her leapfrog Lombardi into the overall top three providing Lombardi doesn't finish runner-up.
However, Spivey's focus is likely to be far less on the WTCS standings than trying to finish on the podium to gain an automatic qualifying spot for the Olympics.
With Taylor Knibb having secured one berth in the Paris test event, another US spot could go here – a situation made more interesting with both 2016 Olympic gold medallist Gwen Jorgensen and 2020 Tokyo bronze medallist Katie Zaferes also on the start-list.
Summer Rappaport is another in the mix for Olympic qualification, but she could also, along with Jeanne Lehair, Sophie Coldwell, and Germany's Nina Elm and Laura Lindemann still technically still win the world title if a bizarre set of circumstances unfolded.
Which other British women are racing?
The current start-list has reigning U23 world champion Kate Waugh and Commonwealth mixed team relay silver medallist Olivia Mathias joining Potter and Coldwell in Spain.
Coldwell, who won a first WTCS race this season in Yokohama and finished second to Potter in Abu Dhabi, could realistically move up to fifth in the overall standings with another win, but as with the American women, her incentive is much more about proving she is capable of winning a medal in Paris next year.
Unfortunately for Coldwell – and unlike the US women – even a win in Pontevedra can't secure her the automatic spot this year following a disappointing 20th place in the test event.
How is it likely to play out in Pontevedra?
Much like the men's race, shorn of the swim-bike prowess of injured Olympic and Commonwealth champion Flora Duffy, and the absence of Knibb, who has chosen to miss the race – with speculation she may be eyeing a start in the Ironman World Championship in Hawaii – it looks like there might be a lack of firepower at the front to help any breakaway stick.
With GB's Jess Learmonth shortly due to give birth and Taylor-Brown also not racing, there's every chance it could come down to a 10km showdown between Potter and Beaugrand.
If that is the case, Potter will be hoping for a repeat of the Paris Test Event where she finished ahead of the French, while Beaugrand – whose best results at WTCS level have come over the sprint and super-sprint distance – will be anxious to show she can compete over the longer run.
Beaugrand has the talent to lead-out the swim, but will need enough assistance leaving T1 if she's to have a chance of making a gap to the Brit hold.
Spivey and Rappaport might help in that respect because it's also in their own interests to try and take the race away from the other US women, but it's doubtful whether that will be enough.
The challenge is that the swim is not a weakness for Potter either, and her bike strength has improved year-on-year since she came into the sport in 2017. She's also likely to have motivated athletes around her such as Zaferes, and depending on what role Coldwell is willing to play, she could also assist the Scot.
Who to watch in the women’s paratriathlon in Pontevedra?
The women’s paratriathlon competition in Galicia brings together some old rivalries and new faces in what should make for thrilling entertainment on Saturday.
In the PTS5 class it looks set to be another showdown between USA’s Grace Norman, and Britain’s Lauren Steadman and Claire Cashmore.
Steadman finally clinched the Paratriathlon gold in Tokyo that eluded her in Rio, but is yet to win this season. Tokyo bronze medallist Cashmore has won twice in Spain this year, and finished runner-up to Norman in the Paris test event last month.
But with five straight wins in 2023, the American is the form athlete. Undefeated for over a year, the 25-year-old will start as favourite.
The PTVI class looks intriguing, with reigning world and Paralympic champion Susana Rodriguez returning for the first time since Swansea in July.
The 35-year-old could face multiple challengers, including Italy’s Francesca Tarantello, who inflicted the Spaniard’s first defeat in four years in Wales. German newcomer and winner in Paris last month, Anja Renner, is another name to look out for.
In the PTS4 division, GB’s 2019 world champion Hannah Moore, having recently competed in the UCI World Championships, is looking to put injury behind her and leave a mark. Moore’s biggest challenge is likely to come from USA’s No 1-ranked Kelly Elmlinger who has won five from five in 2023.
There is no British representation in the PTS3 event where France’s Elise Marc is chasing her third title, nor in the PTS2 race where the US trio of Hailey Danz, Melissa Stockwell and Allysa Seely have rarely been off the podium since sweeping the medals at the Rio 2016 Paralympic Games.
All three Americans line up in Pontevedra, where Australia’s Anu Francis will also want to have her say, having beaten Danz and Stockwell to win recently in Paris.
Finally, in the wheelchair race, USA’s Kendall Gretsch goes head-to-head with Australia’s Lauren Parker for the fourth time this season. Parker has won all three encounters to date, but Gretsch did famously beat the Aussie in an epic blue carpet sprint in the Tokyo Paralympics.
Britain’s Melissa Nicholls, who hasn’t been off the podium in 2023, represents Britain. The wheelchair racing specialist turned to paratri last year, and at 46, the Worcestershire athlete won’t be the oldest in the field either, with Netherlands’ Margret Ijdema a year her senior.
Top image credit: Bertrand Guay, Getty Images
