Can Lucy Charles-Barclay retain her Ironman 70.3 world title? Can Gustav Iden do the same?
Will the British women who specialise at middle distance make the podium?
Will popular US hope Sam Long go one better than last year having skipped Kona to prioritise St George?
The answer to all those questions and more will be revealed at the weekend when the Ironman 70.3 World Championship returns to the red rock backdrop of Utah for the second successive year.
As has become custom for the Ironman 70.3 Worlds, the racing is split over two days, with the women competing on Friday and the men on Saturday, as the pros line up to try and grab their share of a $350k prize purse.
Here we look at the main contenders, how the race might play out and who will come out on top.
Who will win the women's 70.3 world title?
There’s no other place to start than Charles-Barclay, not just because the 29-year-old is the defending champion, but because it’ll be the biggest shock of the day if she doesn’t lead out the 1.9km swim in Sand Hollow Reservoir.
Charles-Barclay returned from a stress fracture of the hip to win the World Triathlon long course world title in Slovakia and then claim a fourth consecutive runners-up spot in Kona.
Remarkably, alongside USA's Kelly Fillnow who placed 25th, she is one of only two professional women to have finished in Kona to line up here, which shows not only how punishing the trip to Hawaii is, but how keen Charles-Barclay is to repeat the show that saw her deliver a career-best performance in winning here last year.
A major threat will come from Taylor Knibb, a front pack short course swimmer and phenomenal cyclist who put almost 4mins into the field on the bike in September’s PTO US Open in Dallas before eventually finishing second to Charles-Barclay’s third.
The 24-year-old Olympian was also third in St George last year and having come back from injury herself in 2022 could represent the biggest threat.
Bermuda’s Olympic champion Flora Duffy comes into the event on a wildcard after Ironman took pity because her bike didn’t turn up for a planned qualification race in Mont-Tremblant.
The double-Commonwealth champion has had a baptism of fire in non-drafting races at the PTO’s Collins Cup and US Open in Dallas, but if she can get to grips with time-trialling on a course she believes should suit her, a podium is surely within reach.
Also lining up are a legion of middle-distance specialists who feel they are equipped to take the title.
Having won in 2016 in Australia, Holly Lawrence is the only woman starting other than Charles-Barclay to have tasted 70.3 worlds success before. The California-based Brit showed she was in solid form with a fourth-place in Dallas.
Fast-running compatriot Emma Pallant-Browne was second in 2017 and has five middle distance wins in 2022 alone.
Canada’s Paula Findlay is another name to watch out for – the PTO Championship winner from Daytona in 2020 setting the third fastest women’s time in this year’s Collins Cup.
USA’s Jackie Hering will also pose a threat. Seventh in St George in 2021’s worlds, she was a winner in Chattanooga in May.
Then there is Nikki Bartlett, one of five Brits inside the top 10 last year along with Charles-Barclay, Pallant-Browne, Lawrence and Kat Matthews. Bartlett arrives fresh from a second-place in Portugal last weekend.
There are also three other Brits to look out for. These include 2022 Challenge Vansbro winner India Lee, who was 11th in the 2019 70.3 worlds in Nice, Lydia Dant, who is in her first full year as a pro and on a four straight podium streak, and Frankie Sanjana, who says she comes in with few expectations having fought injuries for much of the past two years.
Our prediction
Charles-Barclay to hold off Knibb to cap a miraculous comeback in 2022. Duffy to make the most from the wildcard and grab the final podium spot.
Who'll win the men's race?
It feels like a common theme in triathlon these days, but it’s hard to look past the Norwegians for podium domination. The main question is: In what order?
Iden is the two-time and defending 70.3 world champion, but Kristian Blummenfelt is sore in more ways than one since having his Ironman crown snatched in Kona. The Olympic champion will have the bit between his teeth in St George.
The foremost challenge might come from Magnus Ditlev, the giant Dane who also has a point to prove after being issued a penalty in Hawaii and ending up cutting a frustrated figure in eighth.
At 24, Challenge Roth winner Ditlev has become one of the most impressive triathletes in the world in double-quick time, with an improving swim and run to complement being arguably the strongest cyclist in the field.
Another strongman who can certainly push the pedals is Long. The USA star skipped Kona to focus on this race, and while he can be hit and miss, two runners-up here last year – the second in the 70.3 worlds, means he can’t be ruled out. Long has the bike-run combo to threaten, he just needs to stay in contention through the swim.
Elsewhere, as so often the case in men’s racing, expect to see some unheralded names in the mix.
Ditlev’s compatriot Miki Taagholt came fourth last year for the best result of his career. Anything close would be a huge success.
Oceanside 70.3 champion Jackson Laundry is a wily competitor over this distance, as is the experienced Ben Kanute, who hasn’t had the best of seasons, but is rarely far from the top 10.
The fleet-footed Jason West will be a threat if within striking distance come the half-marathon, and watch out for Aaron Royle.
The Aussie won Challenge Wales in June and has since gained experience in all three PTO races this summer, with the highlight a third place in Edmonton behind the Norwegians.
Frederic Funk is another specialist at the middle distance, who has had two wins and a series of podiums in 2022.
As for the Brits, in contrast to the women, only James Teagle is flying the Union flag. The 26-year-old has had middle-distance success before including a trio of wins in 2021, and forcing his way into the top 10 would be an exceptional achievement.
Prediction
No-one recovers like the Norwegians, and a hungrier Blummenfelt can just edge out Iden in the final mile. Third place to Ditlev who is emerging as the non-drafting heir apparent as Iden and Blummenfelt refocus on Paris 2024 after this.
Top image credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images for Ironman
