Who will win the women’s Ironman World Championship in Hawaii?

The women’s Ironman World Championship takes place on the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, and in an event format mirroring the 2023 edition, this will be the last time the women have the stage to themselves.

In 2023, it was GB’s Lucy Charles-Barclay who stormed to a gun-to-tape victory in a new course record. The monikered mermaid of the sport will be intending to achieve similar this weekend.

While some famous names, including Daniela Ryf and Anne Haug, have now hung up their trisuits, the field remains one of the most talented ever assembled.

Only Julie Derron, the Olympic silver medallist, has withdrawn from the favourites, but that doesn’t mean everyone will reach the start line in tip-top form. 

You only have to look back a few weeks to the men’s competition to Nice to realise that injury and illness can hamper performance, with Magnus Ditlev and Patrick Lange, both feeling the effects of a virus on race-day.

However, those unknowns only make the race tougher to call and with game faces on in the build-up, and little to choose on paper between the contenders, this is how it could play out.

Laura Philipp, Germany

Let’s start with the defending champion. The 38-year-old from near Heidelberg produced the day’s best bike split and then ran an event record 2:44 marathon to take the title in Nice last year and take a final step to the top of the podium in this event. With a similar racing style to Kat Matthews. Philipp has had the edge over the Brit when they’ve lined up in the full distance.

Why she can win

Philipp has unashamedly made Hawaii her goal for 2025, with a slimmed down racing calendar – forgoing the temptation of both the T100 and Ironman World Series – that’s built her season up to this one race. She’s also not short of experience on the Big Island having finished fourth twice and third last time here in 2023. Her performance in Ironman Hamburg in June, where she ran a 2:38 marathon and finished in 8:03, was also pushing new boundaries in the sport.

… and why she might not

Philipp’s weakest discipline is the swim and without a wetsuit in Hawaii, and with Charles-Barclay and potentially Taylor Knibb eyeing a gap after the first discipline, she might have a challenge ever seeing the front of the race.

Top 3 2025 results

1st place Ironman Hamburg
1st place Challenge Roth
1st place Ironman 70.3 Kraichgau

Lucy Charles-Barclay, Great Britain

The Londoner has been coming here since 2015, initially as an age-group athlete, and has never been out of the top two. A firm fan favourite, there’s little doubt she’ll lead out of the swim and try to produce another solo masterclass. There’s no guarantee it will play out that way, though, and as we’ve seen in shorter distance races more recently, the 32-year-old is also becoming more adept at duking it out at the front of the bike and then backing her run.

Why she can win

History shows that the Big Island rewards experience and Charles-Barclay has oodles of it where it counts – at the front of the race. Having managed a torn Achilles here in 2023 to win, we can trust she’ll make the right decisions at the right time to give herself every chance of victory again. Form is also strong with career-first T100 victories in London and Spain heading into the event. 

… and why she might not

Charles-Barclay has raced four T100 races this year and her only full distance outing was a comfortable victory in Lanzarote, albeit a long day out. The last time she faced the best women over the full distance was in Hawaii in 2023. If they’re able to bridge up to her on the bike, running a fast enough marathon – at least sub 2:55 – could be an ask too far.

Top 3 2025 results

1st T100 London
1st T100 Spain
1st Ironman Lanzarote

Kat Matthews, Great Britain

Despite being a two-time Ironman World Championship runner-up, East Midlands-based Matthews is yet to finish an Ironman in Hawaii, so it is still an unknown factor on the course. A horror crash in the build-up to 2022 and then pulling out feeling unwell in 2023, has been the story of her aborted attempts so far, but as the reigning Ironman Pro Series champion, there’s every reason to believe 2025 can be better. 

Why she can win

Matthews rarely puts in a below-par performance and with a reshuffled coaching team, including Alex Dowsett as cycling coach, her career still looks to be on an upward trajectory. Defeated Taylor Knibb in Texas and her only defeat of 2025 was in a sensational duel with Philipp in Hamburg where she posted one of the fastest times ever. Confidence should be high.

… and why she might not

For all the preparation that will be done, a lack of race-day experience on the Big Island is one of the biggest indicators towards not winning this event. Other than Chelsea Sodaro bucking the trend in 2022, you have to go back to Chrissie Wellington in 2007 to find the last woman who won this event on debut. While it won’t be Matthews’ debut, it may take something equally as impressive by Matthews to follow those women on Saturday.

Top 3 2025 results

1st place Ironman Texas
1st place Ironman 70.3 Zell am See
1st place Ironman 70.3 Swansea

Taylor Knibb, USA

Knibb gained vital experience when finishing fourth here in 2023, an event she explicitly stated was about understanding the dynamics ahead of this 2025 return. The US firebrand is open that this is the one race that motivates her above all others – Olympics included – and as reigning Ironman 70.3 and T100 world champion is the home favourite to follow in Sodaro’s footsteps from 2022. It was fourth place in 2023 as she faded towards the end of the run, with expectations higher now.

Why she can win

A rolling, non-technical 112-mile bike course should be Taylor-made for Knibb to power away from her rivals, which looks to be her best chance of success. In fact, you have to go back to 2023 in Hawaii for the last time Knibb didn’t have the fastest bike split in a non-drafting race. If there’s a healthy enough lead coming into the marathon, she may have a chance.

… and why she might not

While there’s no doubting Knibb has the bike power, it’s not guaranteed she has the run legs to sustain the advantage. Having only competed in two Ironmans, she is the least experienced of the leading contenders. 

Top 3 2025 results

1st Vancouver T100
2nd Ironman Texas
2nd San Francisco T100

Chelsea Sodaro

The 2022 Ironman champion is yet to recapture the form that made her the first US woman to win the title in 26 years. But the former track runner shouldn’t be written off. Past success can count for a lot in Hawaii, and the 36-year-old also has a tendency to bring her best form to the biggest races. A third place in Nice last summer behind Philipp and Matthews was one example and although this year hasn’t seen Sodaro step to the top of a podium, we shouldn’t read too much into her third place finish in Ironman Sweden in August, given the primary goal was validating for Kona.

Why she can win

If Sodaro has a solid swim, doesn’t lose too much time on the bike and invokes the spirit of 2022 on the run, her rivals should watch out. That might be a lot to ask, but of the leading contenders, she has the best marathons here, 2:51 in 2022 and 2:53, when placing sixth a year later.

… and why she might not

Sodaro has lacked consistency of performance since the 2022 success, including a number of drop-outs in races and only two wins, both in Australasia at the start of last year. Being out of contention before the run is likely, particularly with so much firepower at the front of the race.

Top 3 2025 results

2nd Ironman 70.3 Eagleman
2nd Ironman 70.3 Pennsylvania
3rd Ironman Sweden

Other contenders

While we’ve picked a top five, there are other names on the start line who will fancy their chances of causing an upset. 

Norway’s Solveig Loevseth is perhaps the most exciting addition. She was more than a bit-part player in the Matthews-Philipp tussle in Hamburg, with an 8:12 finish being the fastest ever full distance debut by a woman. This was backed up with victory in Ironman Lake Placid in July with a 2:46 marathon. And, hey, it’s not been a bad year for Norwegians at Ironman World Championships so far.

France’s Marjolaine Pierre regained the World Triathlon Long Distance crown this summer, backing up her – albeit distant – fourth place at the Ironman World Championship in Nice last year. At just 25 years old, like Loevseth, she is on the upswing. 

The event may come too soon for Skye Moench, who is returning from maternity leave, and has hardly raced in the past two years, But she’ll have fond memories of seventh in Hawaii from 2023, and backing it up with a career-best win in Ironman Florida the following month. 

Spain’s Marta Sanchez was sixth in Nice last year and impresses on the swim, while Canadian Tamara Jewett might be too far back to trouble the podium, but could potentially take down Haug’s run course record of 2:48:23.

What about the rest of the Brits?

While Charles-Barclay and Matthews lead the way, India Lee heads a pack of four other British women hoping to make a name for themselves on the Big Island. Lee, a regular on the T100 circuit, won Ironman Les Sables in June for her first full distance success. 

Another middle distance expert, Holly Lawrence, is also stepping up with few external expectations following a fifth place on debut in Lake Placid in July. Lawrence, who gave birth earlier this year, is the 2016 Ironman 70.3 world champion, and should see a top-10 finish as a success.

Steph Clutterbuck, a former rower who competed in Hawaii as part of the Zwift Academy age-group team in 2023, has overcome health issues to make the start, qualifying with a second place in Chattanooga last September and finishing eighth in ironman Texas in April.

Finally, Rebecca Anderbury, who was eighth in Hamburg earlier this summer, recorded a first pro win at 70.3 Poznan last month, so should start the event on a high.

220Triathlon columnist Tim Heming’s Kona predictions:

1. Laura Philipp. Dedicated focus on being 100% right for one day of the year aligned to the confidence of the Nice win last year, can be enough to see the German defend her crown
2. Lucy Charles-Barclay. Has never been outside the top two in Hawaii, and clear of injury, won’t let that record slip 
3. Kat Matthews. I can see a tight tussle between Matthews and Knibb for the final podium spot, but the Brit’s superior run just winning out.