Who will win the women’s race at the Ironman World Championship?

The Ironman World Championship has a new look this year with the men having already raced in France and the women returning to the Big Island – and the pro women are ready to leave it all out on the course.

Last year was the first time in the history of the Ironman World Championship that men and women raced on separate days in Kona. This year, the men were designated Nice, France as their world championship location while the women are returning to Hawai’i for the iconic heat, wind and hills.

What happened in the 2022 women’s Ironman World Champs?

American Chelsea Sodaro shocked many when she broke the tape in 8:33:46 at her first attempt at Kona, becoming the first American to take the top spot in more than 25 years and first rookie to do so in 15 years

Multi-time IMWC podium finisher and British national Lucy Charles-Barclay was about eight minutes behind Sodaro and came in second in 8:41:37 with German Anne Haug claiming bronze in 8:42:22.

As any good triathlete knows, past podiums in Kona are rarely an indication of future ones, and this year’s start list is as fierce as ever.

What are the reigning champion Chelsea Sodaro’s chances in 2023?

Sodaro’s win last year was unexpected – and has placed a target on her back for most of 2023. She had a strong season opener at 70.3 Oceanside with a second-place finish (4:09:31) and then struggled with a DNF at Challenge Roth – where Daniela Ryf set the new iron-distance world record in 8:08:21.

Sodaro was able to figuratively “hide” on the bike in 2022 and then explode onto the scene with a 2:51:45 marathon and break away as the miles stretched on.

This year, the rest of the pro field will undoubtedly keep their eyes on Sodaro from the gun and do all the can to prevent her laying low until the run.

Daniela Ryf has had a mixed year, with highs such as Challenge Roth and lows such as a ninth finish at the 70.3 worlds when she was predicted to be a contender for the win.

Ryf has also shared in September that she’s been struggling with “post-viral fatigue” and that her father, with whom she was close, passed away last month.

Brit Kat Matthews is also hungry to find the win after finishing runner-up at the 2021 Ironman World Championship in St. George, Utah – only to be struck by a car while preparing for the 2022 World Championship later that year, taking her out of contention to race.

Matthews has stormed back onto the scene with a tremendous win in Ironman Texas and a second-place finish at the 2023 70.3 World Championships, and her run is spicy as ever.

Compatriot Charles-Barclay has had a slew of second- and third-place finishes in Kona, and while she shows a friendly face publicly, it’s clear that Charles-Barclay is on the hunt for her first overall Ironman World Championship title.

We’d be remiss not to mention that American Taylor Knibb is on the start list for Kona after much speculation in the past couple months after her 70.3 world championship victory in Lahti.

Kona will be the Olympian’s first go at a full-distance triathlon, and it’s a curiosity of many if her prowess, especially on the bike, will rocket her ahead of the field on the Big Island.

Kona 2023 podium predictions 

The question used to be: who can beat Ryf? But with the variety of strong performances across all three disciplines from numerous women, the win – and the podium – is less obvious heading into 2023.

There are numerous podium combinations that could materialise on 14 October. Ryf has shown us time and time again to never count her out, and after a seventh place finish in Kona last year, she has a fire in her to once again be the Queen of Kona.

The 2019 champion and 2022 third-place finisher Haug always astounds with her incredible running abilities, but her inability to keep up with the über-bikers often leaves her without enough real estate to catch the top spot on the run.

Matthews, Knibb, Charles-Barclay, Sodaro – they all make a strong case for themselves to be in the coveted top three after strong performances this entire year.

Who are this year’s dark horses?

Americans Sarah True and Skye Moench (who placed eighth overall and top American at Kona in 2022) are our dark-horse picks, whose strong bike and run abilities could land them on the podium with the right conditions.

Other strong contenders include multiple Ironman champion and the current fastest female Ironman finisher ever Laura Philipp, Swede Lisa Norden, and Brit Fenella Langridge – all of whom were in the top 10 last year and left the Big Island wanting more.

Top image credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images for Ironman