Ironman 70.3 World Championship: Lucy Charles-Barclay and Kat Matthews head strong GB challenge in Marbella

Whether it’s the sheer depth of talent lining up or the fact that this event comes towards the end of an increasingly cluttered calendar, both the professional men’s and women’s races at the Ironman 70.3 World Championships are a wash of unpredictability.

Added to that is a challenging bike course in southern Spain that has, metre for metre, around 50% more ascent than the parcours of Ironman races in Nice. Plus, the contest comes in the wake of two punishing full-distance World Championships — particularly the women’s race in Hawaii — meaning picking winners is akin to buying a lottery ticket for the famous El Gordo [namely, the fat one, and the biggest prize in Spain’s lottery].

What does look certain, and it’s bumper news for British triathlon fans, is that there is likely to be plenty of GB involvement at the front of the women’s race.

The 2021 winner, Lucy Charles-Barclay, who missed last year’s contest in New Zealand through injury, is on the start-list despite being unable to finish in Kona four weeks ago due to heat exhaustion.

Whether husband and coach Reece’s intervention to withdraw Lucy partway through the marathon will have saved her from lingering lethargy remains to be seen, but that question can also be asked of the reigning champion Taylor Knibb.

USA’s Knibb, who is looking for an unprecedented fourth straight victory, also arrives in Marbella with question marks hanging over her fitness after collapsing on the roadside when leading and almost within sight of the finish on the Big Island.

Her stock in trade in the past three editions has been a blisteringly fast 56-mile bike leg that has created an insurmountable buffer for the half-marathon that follows. We will find out on Saturday morning [the men race on Sunday] whether the 28-year-old has recovered sufficiently.

Either way, there are plenty of women itching to take any advantage and step to the top of the podium — including Kat Matthews, who, following her course-record run in Hawaii, has now finished runner-up on five occasions in the Ironman and Ironman 70.3 worlds combined without yet taking the top spot.

Matthews has the added incentive of being No. 1 ranked in the Ironman Pro Series, with the only woman who could thwart her being Norwegian Solveig Løvseth. But it would take an unlikely turn of events — including injury, a mechanical or an other-worldly performance from the newly crowned Ironman champion — to stop the Loughborough-based Brit picking up the $200,000 top prize for the second successive year.

Elsewhere, other British contenders include Olympic relay gold medallist Jess Learmonth, who has achieved two podiums on the T100 circuit and qualified by winning an Ironman 70.3 in Nice this summer. Learmonth, 34, is one of the few women who can match Charles-Barclay on the swim, and potentially challenge Knibb on the bike, but will likely need a career-best run performance to trouble the podium.

Learmonth’s long-time short-course training partner, Georgia Taylor-Brown, is also lining up having varied her approach this year to include more downtime but also dabbling with a range of challenges from super-sprint distance triathlon to T100 to cycle racing. The 31-year-old has not competed in a 70.3 since winning in Bahrain last November, but undoubtedly has the pedigree — her fortunes will likely depend on how much specific focus she’s placed on this event.

With a 60 plus-strong field of pro women lining up, there are a number of other names that could play a role, including Løvseth, the consistent Canadian Paula Findlay — who has been nursing a hip injury — or yet more GB talent such as India Lee or the up-and-coming Lizzie Rayner.

The men’s event might have less British involvement at the front of the field, but its outcome is no less intriguing as the Norwegian trio of Kristian Blummenfelt, Gustav Iden and reigning Ironman world champion Casper Stornes make an audacious bid for another podium sweep, replicating what they achieved in Nice in September.

Should Stornes back up from that result, it will mean he is only the third male triathlete to win both the full-distance and 70.3 world titles in the same year, and ensure that along with Iden and Blummenfelt the triumvirate have all won world titles at both distances.

In another stacked field of pros, there are plenty of rivals out to stop them. Chief among them is defending champion Jelle Geens, who has kicked on from his success in Taupō last year with five podiums on the T100 series this season including a win in Vancouver.

The Belgian’s goal is to get to the run in contention before unleashing his fearsome foot-speed, in contrast to the 2023 winner Rico Bogen, who will be trying to ride away from the field in a bid to regain the title he won in surprise fashion in Lahti, Finland.

Sickness derailed Magnus Ditlev’s Ironman world-title bid in Nice, but while he typically offers a lesser threat at the shorter distance, his bike power means he could still heavily influence the race. The same could be said of Jonas Schomburg, the German who finished sixth in Nice and then backed up with a third-place at T100 Spain just six days later.

If his body is still holding up, Schomburg should be at the front of the swim and has an aggressive style that could see him contend on the bike and deep into the half-marathon. The same could also be said of a host of triathletes who have either recently stepped up from draft-legal racing or are taking the opportunity in a post-Olympic year to try new disciplines.

These include South African Jamie Riddle, New Zealander Tayler Reid, Italian Alessio Crociani, and even Scotland’s Cameron Maine, who, while not among the favourites, could be swept along in what promises to be an electric opening to the event, with a wetsuit-legal sea swim likely to deliver a large pack into the first transition.

220Triathlon columnist Tim Heming’s predictions

Women’s predictions

With the women’s Ironman worlds in Hawaii being three weeks later than the men’s equivalent in Nice, expect the legacy of the brutal Big Island contest to be a defining factor in the women’s race.

It’s also the race of the weekend where we’re more likely to see a breakaway at the front; with Learmonth and Charles-Barclay leading that initially, and then Knibb quickly coming through the field, potentially with Matthews and Løvseth still within striking distance.

If Matthews can hold her run form from Kona, she can beat an improving Løvseth, with Taylor-Brown being fresher than most of the rest and snatching the final podium spot.

1. Kat Matthews
2. Solveig Lovseth
3. Georgia Taylor-Brown

Men’s predictions

The men’s race is more likely to see a large pack heading out onto the bike course and while the climbs will help split the field, the potential for drafting penalties as athletes get frustrated in attempts to move forward is high.

That makes the prediction even more difficult, but the course should suit Geens, who, without having to worry about Hayden Wilde (who didn’t complete a qualifying race), won’t fear anyone — even the Norwegians — on the run.

Even with such an array of firepower elsewhere, it’s hard to look beyond the Norwegians to fill the remaining podium spots, with Blummenfelt still the hungriest of the three after settling for third in Nice, and Stornes on a high after his career-defining performance in Nice.

1. Jelle Geens
2. Kristian Blummenfelt
3. Casper Stornes